Ten Dems

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Site last updated: February 13, 2026. Updated at least monthly, in the middle of each month.

Changes since last month:

• HOUSE: Sarah Trone Garriott (IA-3) added to super-priority list.
• HOUSE: Marcy Kaptur (OH-9) moved from supplementary list to super-priority list.
• HOUSE: Greg Landsman (OH-1) moved from super-priority list to supplementary list.
• HOUSE: Adam Gray (CA-13) moved off our lists because his race is now forecast as leaning in his favor, rather than toss-up. If his races tightens, he will be added back onto our lists.
• New section of newsletter: We have added section 4: "For those who wish to also consider other candidates". 

CONTENTS

1. Our lists: Explanation

2. Super-priority list - February 2026

3. Supplementary list - February 2026

4. For those who wish to also consider other candidates

5. Sources we consult when compiling our candidate lists

The aim of this newsletter is to identify Dem House and Senate candidates in genuine toss-up races, and to flag which of those are currently most in need of donations and volunteers.

1. Our lists: Explanation

• Our candidate lists in sections 2 and 3 are based primarily on private conversations with political experts in DC (those we believe have the best overview of all Senate and House races nationwide, including each candidate's real-time financial situation). See section 4 below for other sources we consult.
• These are the candidates in the closest races, expected to be within 1 or 2 percentage points. Candidates are not included if they are in competitive Democratic primaries, if their Republican opponent is not yet known and may affect whether the race will be close, or if there is a more-than-remote chance of future redistricting which may affect whether a House race will be close.
• We do not screen candidates based on their records or policy positions – we leave it to each person to decide which Democratic candidates they wish to support.
• The hyperlink on each candidate’s name links to their campaign website, where you can learn about the candidate, make a donation, and/or offer to volunteer. 

2. Super-priority list - February 2026: The 10 candidates in toss-up races who are most in need of donations and volunteers now.

SENATE

• Roy Cooper (North Carolina) – 2025 video clip
• Jon Ossoff (Georgia) – 2025 video clip

HOUSE

• Paige Cognetti (PA-8) - 2025 video clip
• Henry Cuellar (TX-28) - 2022 video clip
• Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (WA-3) - 2025 video clip; 2022 video clip (includes reference to her opponent in that election)
• Vicente Gonzalez (TX-34) - 2025 video clip
• Marcy Kaptur (OH-9) - 2024 video clip
• Susie Lee (NV-3) - 2020 video clip
• JoAnna Mendoza (AZ-6) - 2025 video clip
• Sarah Trone Garriott (IA-3) - 2025-26 video clips

3. Supplementary list of priority candidates - February 2026: Other priority candidates in toss-up races who also need donations and volunteers, but their need is not as pressing as the super-priority candidates at this time.

SENATE

• No Senate candidates on supplementary list at this time - check back in future months

HOUSE

• Christina Bohannon (IA-1) - 2024 video clip
• Greg Landsman (OH-1) - 2024 video clip
• Janelle Stelson (PA-10) - 2023 video clip; 2025 video clip

4. For those who wish to also consider other candidates

As explained above, the mandate of our Ten Dems Network is singularly focused: to identify the House and Senate races that are genuine toss-ups.

We are aware that some people who share the goal of gaining control of House and Senate may wish to support not only toss-up candidates, but also Dem candidates in other House and Senate races, often focusing on races rated “Tilt Republican” or “Lean Republican”. For example, at the moment the Dem candidates in “Lean Republican” Senate races are Sherrod Brown (Ohio) and Mary Peltola (Alaska). 

Cook Political Report defines “Lean Republican” as a race that is considered competitive, but in which the Republican candidate has a distinct advantage. In other words, a "Lean Republican" rating indicates that the race is a serious contest, but the structural, political, or financial factors lean in favor of the Republican nominee. With strong support and donations, some of the Dem candidates in “Lean Republican” races might win. But it is more likely that Dem candidates in “Lean Republican” races will lose – so donors need to take that risk into account.

For those who want to find out which House and Senate races are rated “Tilt Republican” or “Lean Republican” by election forecasting organizations, see the following links. The first two organizations below have a “Lean Republican” category in their ratings; Inside Elections has both “Lean Republican” and “Tilt Republican” categories, the latter denoting a race rated between toss-up and “Lean Republican”. Please note: These rating agencies list the races under the name of the incumbent.

• Cook Political Report: Senate ratings; House ratings.
• Sabato’s Crystal Ball (University of Virginia Center for Politics): Senate ratings; House ratings.
• Inside Elections: Senate ratings; House ratings.

5. Sources we consult when compiling our candidate lists

• As noted in section 1 above, our candidate lists are based primarily on discussions with political experts in DC who have the best overview of every House and Senate race nationwide.
• Other sources we consult include: Polls, vote share and win probability projections; ratings by Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball (Univ. of Virginia Center for Politics), and Inside Elections; and commentary in Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin and G. Elliott Morris' Strength in Numbers.