Ten Dems

Working to elect Democrats to the House and Senate in 2026

Site last updated: October 15, 2026. Updated at least monthly, in the middle of each month.

Changes since last month:

SENATE: Adam Hamilton (Kansas) added to supplementary list
SENATE: Sherrod Brown (Ohio) and Josh Turek (Iowa) moved from supplementary list to super-priority list
SENATE: Abdul El-Sayed (Michigan) moved from super-priority list to supplementary list
SENATE: Chris Pappas (New Hampshire) moved off our list because that race is now leaning in his favor
HOUSE: Mitchell Berman (WI-1), Bob Harvie (PA-1), Lindsay James (IA-2) and Nancy Lacore (SC-1) added to super-priority list
HOUSE: Jamie Ager (NC-11) and Sean McCann (MI-4) added to supplementary list
HOUSE: Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (WA-3), William Lawrence (MI-7) and Jared Moskowitz (FL-25) moved from super-priority list to supplementary list
HOUSE: Bob Brooks (PA-7), Henry Cuellar (TX-28), Sarah Trone Garriott (IA-3) and Gabe Vasquez (NM-2) moved off our list because those races are now leaning in their favor

CONTENTS

1. Our lists: Explanation

2. Super-priority list - October 15, 2026

3. Supplementary list - October 15, 2026

4. For those who wish to also consider other candidates

5. Sources we consult when compiling our candidate lists

The aim of this website is to identify Dem House and Senate candidates in genuine toss-up races, and to flag which of those are currently most in need of donations and volunteers.

1. Our lists: Explanation

Our candidate lists in sections 2 and 3 are based primarily on private conversations with political experts in DC (those we believe have the best overview of all Senate and House races nationwide, including each candidate's real-time financial situation). See section 5 below for other sources we consult.
These are the candidates in the closest races, expected to be within 1 or 2 percentage points. Candidates are not included if they are in competitive Democratic primaries, if their Republican opponent is not yet known and may affect whether the race will be close, or if there is a more-than-remote chance of future redistricting which may affect whether a House race will be close.
We do not screen candidates based on their records or policy positions – we leave it to each person to decide which Democratic candidates they wish to support.
The hyperlink on each candidate’s name links to their campaign website, where you can learn about the candidate, make a donation, and/or offer to volunteer.

2. Super-priority list - October 15, 2026: The 10 candidates in toss-up races who are most in need of donations and volunteers now.

SENATE:

Sherrod Brown (Ohio) - 2025 video clip
Troy Jackson (Maine) - 2026 video clip
Josh Turek (Iowa) - 2026 video clip; 2026 video clip

HOUSE:

Mitchell Berman (WI-1) - 2026 video clip
Don Davis (NC-1) - 2022 video clip
Vicente Gonzalez (TX-34) - 2025 video clip; 2025 video clip
Bob Harvie (PA-1) - 2025 video clip
Lindsay James (IA-2) - 2026 video clip
Marcy Kaptur (OH-9) - 2024 video clip
Nancy Lacore (SC-1) - 2026 video clip

3. Supplementary list of priority candidates - October 15, 2026: Other priority candidates in toss-up races who also need donations and volunteers, but their need is not as pressing as the super-priority candidates at this time.

SENATE:

Abdul El-Sayed (Michigan) - 2026 video clip; 2025 video clip
Adam Hamilton (Kansas) - 2026 video clip
Mary Peltola (Alaska) - 2026 video clip
James Talarico (Texas) - 2026 video clip; 2026 video clip

HOUSE:

Jamie Ager (NC-11) - 2025 video clip
Kathy Castor (FL-14) - 2026 video clip
Paige Cognetti (PA-8) - 2025 video clip
Cait Conley (NY-17) - 2026 video clip
Rebecca Cooke (WI-3) - 2024 video clip
Pia Dandiya (FL-22) - 2026 video clip; 2026 video clip
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (WA-3) - 2025 video clip; 2022 video clip (refers to that election's opponent)
Christina Hines (MI-10) - 2026 video clip
William Lawrence (MI-7) - 2026 video clip
Elaine Luria (VA-2) - 2019 video clip
Sean McCann (MI-4) - 2026 video clip
JoAnna Mendoza (AZ-6) - 2025 video clip
Jared Moskowitz (FL-25) - 2022 video clip
Brian Poindexter (OH-7) - 2026 video clip
Manny Rutinel (CO-8) - 2026 video clip
Shannon Taylor (VA-1) - 2025 video clip
Randy Villegas (CA-22) - 2026 video clip

4. For those who wish to also consider other candidates

As explained above, the mandate of our Ten Dems Network is singularly focused: to identify the House and Senate races that are genuine toss-ups.

We are aware that some people who share the goal of gaining control of the House and Senate may wish to support not only toss-up candidates, but also Dem candidates in other House and Senate races, often focusing on races rated “Tilt Republican” or “Lean Republican”. For example, Dem candidates currently in "Lean Republican" House races include: Jessica Killin (CO-5), Leela Gray (FL-13), Eliott Rodriguez (FL-27), Zach Dembo (KY-6), Matt Dunlap (ME-2), Sam Forstag (MT-1) and Johnny Garcia (TX-35).

Cook Political Report defines “Lean Republican” as a race that is considered competitive, but in which the Republican candidate has a distinct advantage. In other words, a "Lean Republican" rating indicates that the race is a serious contest, but the structural, political, or financial factors lean in favor of the Republican nominee. With strong support and donations, some of the Dem candidates in “Lean Republican” races might win. But it is more likely that Dem candidates in “Lean Republican” races will lose – so donors need to take that risk into account.

For those who want to find out which House and Senate races are rated “Tilt Republican” or “Lean Republican” by election forecasting organizations, see the following links. The first two organizations below have a “Lean Republican” category in their ratings; Inside Elections has both “Lean Republican” and “Tilt Republican” categories, the latter denoting a race rated between toss-up and “Lean Republican”. Please note: These rating agencies list the races under the name of the incumbent.

Cook Political Report: Senate ratings; House ratings.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball (University of Virginia Center for Politics): Senate ratings; House ratings.
Inside Elections: Senate ratings; House ratings.

5. Sources we consult when compiling our candidate lists

As noted in section 1 above, our candidate lists are based primarily on discussions with political experts in DC who have the best overview of every House and Senate race nationwide.
Other sources we consult include: Polls, vote share and win probability projections; ratings by Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball (Univ. of Virginia Center for Politics), and Inside Elections; and commentary in Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin and G. Elliott Morris' Strength in Numbers.